Douglas Schoen, a Democratic pollster responding to the Washington Post’s inquiry about the expected fallout from the Prop 8 ruling, said the ruling "will almost certainly hurt the Democrats in November."
DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN
The court decision throwing out Proposition 8 will almost certainly hurt the Democrats in November. To be sure, it will activate gays and supporters of equal rights in California, New York and Massachusetts, and there may be some congressional districts in which this brings marginal benefits. Yet the decision effectively defies the will of the California electorate and has brought the issue of gay marriage front and center as the midterms approach.
It is almost certain that opponents of gay marriage vastly exceed supporters, both in number and intensity. But opponents' biggest advantage is their location. A disproportionate number of them live in swing states and swing districts crucial to the balance of power this November.