Polls vary because predicting turnout in special elections is tough -- but Turner is close and Weprin is in trouble!

The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). Ballot intensity benefits Turner with 35.8% of the respondents definitely voting for Turner while only 28.3% of respondents definitely voting for Weprin.

Both candidates have comparable name recognition (Turner 89% name recognition/Weprin 88% name recognition).   However, Turner’s image is 37% favorable to 23.8% unfavorable, while Weprin’s image is 29.8% favorable to 34.5% unfavorable.-- Magellan