NOM BLOG

New PPP Poll Confirms: Turnout Will Be Key to Victory

 
A new poll out from Dem-leaning PPP shows that Question 1 (gay marriage) has not gained any more support since September, while we've gained a point in opposition. At this point we are down 7 points (marriage typically under-polls 6-7 points). Even PPP believes this will be a very close race. This means turnout is key:

Maine's referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we've found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.

There is an enormous gender gap opn the marriage issue with women planning to vote for equal rights by a 59/37 margin, while men oppose them by a 55/43 spread. 75% of Democrats support the proposal, 75% of Republicans oppose it, and independents lean slightly in favor of it 51/44. Every age group supports it except for seniors, who are opposed 51/46. Voters under 30 unsurprisingly give it the widest support at 57/34.