More encouraging polling out of Maine, by JMC Analytics and Polling:
Marriage amendment within the margin of error (48-44% in favor).
Our philosophy about which population to use depends on the election, but we are generally comfortable with a “likely” model (as opposed to a “registered” model) for most elections. For this poll, we chose a sample of likely Maine voters for an automated poll, with a sample size of 615 respondents.
The poll was conducted September 17-18. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4%. The party registration breakdown of the respondents was 37% Democratic, 35% Republican, 28% Unaffiliated/Green. The geographic breakdown of the respondents was weighted as follows: 6% from Androscoggin County, 20% from the coastal counties, 22% from Cumberland County, 16% from the interior of Maine, 10% from Kennebec County, 11% from Penobscot County, and 15% from York County (The explanation of the boundaries of these regions is graphically depicted below). Finally, the gender breakdown of the respondents was 53% female and 47% male.