Katrino Trinko at National Review Online:
Twenty-three percent of independent voters are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his announcement that he supports same-sex marriage, according to a Gallup/USA Today poll. Eleven percent are more likely. There might also be a slight shift in how Democrats and Republicans are inclined to vote: while only 2 percent of Republicans say that Obama’s decision makes them more likely to vote for him, 10 percent of Democrats say they’re less likely to back Obama.
15 Comments
Having followed & worked in politics (off & on) my entire life; its easy to see why layman could discount these numbers..
However; an experienced eye realizes these numbers are very important. One needs only look at the small margins that presidential races are won by in order to realize how important they are.
Just a few point one way or another creates a much larger gap between the two. Independants win elections and enthusiasm counts. Wedge issues help peel of large numbers of independents and core values matter.
It looks to me as Obama's internal tracking has him losing by a large margin; especially if the Health Mandate is ruled unconstitutional - his only accomplshment.
And released this morning...
U.S. acceptance of Gay/Lesbian relations is the new normal.
For the third year in a row, a narrow majority of Americans consider gay and lesbian relations morally acceptable, signaling that this is the new "new normal" in public opinion, according to a new Gallup Poll released Monday just days after President Barack Obama announced his support for same-sex marriage.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154634/Acceptance-Gay-Lesbian-Relations-New-Normal.aspx
Pete:
Its rather silly for you to chime in on every NOM post with an often unrelated point or story that seeks to "counter" the headline being discussed.
Its a rather transparent attempt to "thwart" the buisness of the NOM blog..
As such it makes you look emotionally driven and desperate..
Try just commenting on the subject.
Fitz, it's interesting how you NOMers must attack us. But then again, we've asked for facts to backed your claims and you only give random excuses. Do I see why you're so bitter and condescending.
31 states oppose. That shows more do not accept it. Thats a fact proven by the polls. Pete: what you present is a potential poll, not a valid vote. Each time the people vote on gay marriage, game marriage loses. If gay marriage is so accepted, why do a majority of the states reject it?
Gay marriage is rooted only in 2 states CA, NY, the other states had gay marriage pushed on them by those 2 states. 31 states have traditional marriage rooted in them.
re: Gallup Poll above by cited by Pete
Not even sure where to begin on this poorly worded poll. What does the question mean by "relations?" What a stupid word to choose for a poll.
I give Gallup credit for describing the results as signaling a "new normal in public opinion." That means, essentially, that when people are POLLED with stupid words like "relations" in the question, more than 50% answer a certain way. That, as opposed to signaling that the people actually BELIEVE (or more importantly, will vote) what the poll shows. Or, in this case, when you poll people about homosexuals, they answer one way, when you allow people to voter about homosexuals, they answer another.
Back to the subject at hand (which has SSMers concerned, causing them to distract from the topic of the thread), without a doubt, endorsing the redefinition of marriage will not help Obama with independents, or even conservative Democrats, for that matter.
I was watching a political science professor from UVA on O'Reilly the other day who said that if he were advising Obama, he would have told him to continue playing the mushy middle until after November 6th.
The president has to know that this wouldn't help him. Oh wait, he did say that we should all know that he didn't do this for political reasons, as the body data showing support for ssm is "all over the place."
Obama knows he's going to lose.
Of those 31 states, 24 of them voted in by 2006 when the national acceptance was below 40%. With today's acceptance level being above 50%, we doubt you'd find the same success today. What more, do expect these issues to be brought back to the ballot and reversed or better yet, just found to be unconstitutional all together.
Pete is confusing two different issues.
People don't necessarily view homosexuals or their relationships negatively. That doesn't mean that people think marriage should be re-defined to include homosexual "unions".
This could easily be another nail in Obama's coffin when it comes to his chances for re-election.
Pete, et al., have yet to produce evidence of even one piece of legislation which specifically mentions "gay people" as being prohibited from marriage. Ronin is correct; the issue isn't whether or not "gay" people are allowed to get married, the issue is whether or not to issue brideless or groomless marriage licenses. Pete is using the promotion of SSM to further the cause of gay identity politics.
And Pres. Obama is using gay identity politics in a bid to further his political career. Hopefully NOM can help people see this bald-faced bid for power for what it is: divisive and ultimately a threat to real equality and democracy.
Pete, the Gallup survey on "relations" is a superficial measure of the innoculation of younger people by the proponents of gay identity politics.
Now, can you back up the claim that same-sex sexual relations is moral? A bald-faced claim without sound moral argumentation is just that -- an asserted claim with no back-up.
In the Gallup survey you linked there is a co-relation between the trend to consider homosexuality as in-born and to consider same-sex relations as moral. But something being in-born, if that is even so for homosexuality, is not a moral argument for the behavior. Gay identity politics has pressed this false connection; it shows very poor moral thinking not only on the part of those innoculated but, of course, on the part of those who push the litany of falsehoods that have been manufactured by the hockers of gay identity politics.
So the survey results, such as they are, indicate pro-gay bigotry rather than moral enlightenment.
Gay identity is not one and the same as same-sex sexual attraction. Gay is a socio-political identity owned first and foremost by the group that herds individuals. Identity politics has its place, on the margins, but it is not a just basis for lawmaking, for social policies, nor for moral argumentation and moral decision-making.
LOL, you people crack me up. A poll is FAR more predictive of actual beliefs than a vote result. A vote result only represents those who got out to vote. If a large enough group of people want to vote away fellow citizens rights, and are driven to see it as some sort of moral mandate, they would get out in larger numbers. Hardly a representative sampling.
MarkOH cracks up:
"A poll is FAR more predictive of actual beliefs than a vote result."
What a confused remark. Panic oozes from it.