We just reported two polls that show the NC Marriage Amendment up by 14 and 20 points respectively. Why the disparity?
The most recent PPP poll overestimates 18-29 year olds by about 4 points, and, more importantly, underestimates voters over the age of 66 by about 10 point:
This alone is worth 3-4 points for the marriage amendment, not counting the "7 point effect."
What is the "7 point effect"?
Patrick Egan, a political scientist at NYU, issued a paper (PDF here) in 2010 that analyzed an abundance of polling data from 1998 until 2009 on a number of marriage-related ballot measures. Among other things, he found that the measures under-poll by an average of seven points.He did not find that either "social desirability bias" (fear of saying how one will actually vote) or voter confusion explained this gap, and left the explanation as an open question.
Regardless of the reason, there is consistent evidence that these marriage protection measures under-poll, and that the projected level of support is a "lowball" figure.
Now, this is obviously no reason to let up, but it is worth bearing in mind as we enter the final week of the North Carolina campaign.
6 Comments
NC looks like the biggest blowout of the marriage corruption movement yet.
GO NC!!
I would love to see us win it by 20!!!!!!
The Tarheel people of NC know that just as the sky is Carolina blue so is marriage the union of one man and one woman.
Has NOM really given up in Minnesota, as the press is reporting? How can you be so confident of North Carolina, if Minnesota is going to be such a big loss??
I think that it will pass by a strong margin in NC next week - probably closer to the Survey USA results than the PPP ones. It could even outstrip SUSA.
And to Robert, I haven't seen any indication that Minnesota is going to be a big loss or that NOM has given up there. All the latest polls that I've seen show the marriage amendment leading in MN and NOM is understandably focused on getting the NC amendment passed first since the vote is less than a week away!! Then they can focus on MN which votes in 6 months.
Nom has not given up any where, Rome was not built in one day. The sleaze will be defeated in the end.
Robert, which press outlet is reporting that NOM has given up in Minnesota?